A Swinney-Forbes Team-up could work for SNP

John Swinney MSP
Kate Forbes MSP

We will get independence when we actually vote for it. The Scottish people are sovereign so if we vote for it then we get it and we can do so via a de facto referendum. The SNP remain the most powerful advocates for independence whoever their leader is. If they got the 51% or more who support it to back them then we would be on our way. John Swinney wasn’t a very successful leader in the past but he has learnt from that bruising experience. He is effective in parliament, has considerable experience and popularity within the SNP. John has held numerous  important positions including Deputy Leader with Nicola Sturgeon. I think he has tactical nous and will be prepared for the current unionist bloc and the constant criticism in the press that any new SNP leader will now get. If he was to be SNP leader with Forbes as Deputy Leader and Finance Minister (she has undoubted raw talent as a politician) then that would be a powerful team-up. Swinney has the experience and the nerve to lead us to independence if we actually vote for it. Any leader will be attacked constantly but short of the return of Nicola Sturgeon (the allegations against her husband are clearly spurious) then this might be the best option. The historic Salmond/Sturgeon team-up worked well and led to our best FM so far. Giving Forbes a stronger role would mean that we would be using her abilities and popularity to reach out to the wider public while John would have the necessary diplomacy to keep the Greens on side which we need to do if we want to avoid another election. The Greens have overplayed their hand and lost our trust to a large extent (they’ve tried to put out the message ‘don’t mess with the Greens’ but what has been heard is ‘don’t vote for the Greens!’) but to give them their due they haven’t spent the last few years attacking our every move and they haven’t had the cheek to demand standing down our candidates in their favour. If we weren’t actually potentially close to independence then the papers wouldn’t be as brutally hostile to the SNP as they are. They fear us because independence is a simple case (normal national powers for Scotland) and we’re winning the arguments because at all times our party sticks up for Scottish interests.

Don’t count the SNP out yet!

Gerry Hassan at Bella Caledonia is high on ‘SNP doomed’ predictions but short on actual facts.

If the events of the last few days is the biggest scandal the press can come up with about the SNP then we’re doing well. ‘Murrell didn’t want to release membership figures shock!’

The fact both he and Foote resigned over such a minor matter shows our party has integrity at its core.

The SNP might get beat in the future but it hasn’t happened yet. The party is still well ahead in opinion polls for both Westminster and Holyrood.

After a new leader is elected the party could decline, stay stable or thrive. Gerry seems convinced we will decline but I think we will thrive.

The leadership contest has been tough. My view on one of the TV debates is here. In my opinion Kate Forbes has emerged as the candidate with most potential as SNP leader even though she made at least one early blunder over equal marriage. I think she has the killer instinct and fire in the belly that we need our leader to have to defeat our unionist opponents.

She is also right that too few people have been making decisions at the top of the SNP and empowering the membership is the right way forward. Ultimately the SNP as a mass membership party (still, at 72k even with the recent loss of members we have more than all the other parties in Scotland combined) have a huge depth of talent within our ranks and that hasn’t always been utilised as well as it could be.

Labour offer the square root of nothing. Keir Starmer is indeed David Cameron with a red tie. Starmer is just as much a blinkered unionist as Rishi Sunak so all these parties offer for Scots is more political impotence within the union.

Independence is normality and makes logical sense. That argument has not been defeated and as long as the case for independence is strong the SNP will play a central role until it is delivered.

If we get an inspiring new leader and the party unites behind them then new members will join up. We need to increase the number of supporters of independence more than we need new members.

The New Route To Independence for Scotland

Scotland is a country. The people of Scotland are sovereign per the 1989 Claim of Right (supported by every party in Scotland except the Tories) and the 1320 Declaration of Arbroath.

The devolved parliament was set up by the UK parliament in response to public demand but what was put into the parliament bill does not affect Scotland’s ancient rights as a country to self determination which pre-date the establishment of devolution. (This was incidentally only delivered 20 years after an initial vote in favour in 1979). The 1997 second devolution referendum asked two questions: do you want devolution and do you want tax raising powers. The answer was Yes to both.

There was no question asked about independence and our right to independence (which applies to all recognised countries) was not affected by the establishment of devolution. We were independent already until 1707 when we signed the treaty of union and there is nothing to stop us becoming independent again if the Scottish public decide to back it.

We have a democratic mandate for indyref2. That has been blocked by the UK supreme court (despite the fact the independence of Scotland’s legal system is supposed to be baked into the treaty of union, so there should be no court above the Scottish Court of Session) but we will have our say eventually nonetheless.

It now looks like a plebiscite election (at the next UK general election) will be required. ‘Not now, not ever’ won’t be a great message for the anti-independence side but it’s all they are left with since they have now established that the union is not equal. (It never was but it’s useful to have it in writing.)

Fighting a plebiscite election will be easier for the SNP than a referendum. We will make our case for independence but because the unionists are in denial that a campaign for independence is taking place, they are unlikely to be able to campaign against effectively. In 2014 they had the ‘Better Together’ campaign, numerous celebrities (mostly from England) and blanket Scotland/SNP bad stories from the (mostly) English owned media in Scotland.

In a general election Labour and Tories won’t be united like they were in 2014, in fact it’s doubtful there will be a real No campaign at all apart from fringe nutters like the Majority and Scotland in Union because the main unionist parties will be in denial that an independence campaign is even happening! They can’t boycott a general election and the SNP are the strongest political party on the ground by a mile. The Greens and Believe in Scotland will also be fighting on our side and Alba will be presumably in there as well. This all adds up to a big win for the cause of independence. Will Westminster respect this win? Probably not.

We would then have to remove our MP’s from the UK parliament to show we no longer recognise it, declare independence and go to the UN to recognise us, something they have done for numerous former colonies.

I believe Biden’s USA will be happy to see a new state aligned to the EU emerge so before long our flag will fly at the UN and Westminster will be forced to grind out a political settlement, whether they like it or not.

Edit – Since I wrote this article there have been a number of people suggesting that a Scottish election would be better because of the franchise (16 and 17 year olds can vote in Scottish elections).

This has a number of issues. 1) The next Scottish election isn’t till 2026 so we would have to arrange an election before then by the FM resigning (not happening) or adjusting the rules to facilitate a new election. We could do that perhaps, but:

2) We already have a majority for Scottish independence in the Scottish Parliament. So gaining another one would take us nowhere.

3) We can’t unite around one party (which we can do easily with the SNP in a UK GE) as its a PR election. (The cynic in me thinks the main reason Alba want a new Scottish election is because it gives them the outside chance of winning a seat!)

4) The UK parties don’t care what happens in Scotland so they could quite easily boycott a Scottish election to try and drive down participation and the credibility of the result. They can’t do that for a UK general election because they need every seat they can get to take power at Westminster.

So in conclusion the franchise for GE isn’t ideal but it’s two years away so current 16 and 17 year olds will actually be able to vote. A UK GE will also be more likely to give a clear result. Before the campaign even starts over 50% are saying they would back the SNP in a plebiscite election. See article below:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/23272956.de-facto-referendum-see-scots-vote-independence-poll-finds/?ref=fbshr

While public opinion is variable, this is a good place to start.

PS: I don’t know if the SNP would walk their MPs out of Westminster after a plebiscite UK election or make some kind of declaration of independence but at least they would have those options available to them ie we would be in a much stronger position than we are right now.

Edit- This is a more up to date article on the present position:

There is a logical route to gaining independence at the next United Kingdom General Election – Vote SNP

Scotland’s people are sovereign no matter what Supreme Court says

All today’s verdict really means is that the Scotland Act reserved the constitution to the UK government which includes indyrefs. It doesn’t affect our right to self determination under the United Nations.

The sovereignty of the Scottish people is accepted by everyone in Scotland. See the 1989 Claim of Right or the 1320 Declaration of Arbroath. That means we choose when we become independent. What was put into the Scotland Act which created devolution doesn’t affect that over riding principle. Westminster can say No but when we say Yes to independence, there is nothing they can do about it. They couldn’t stop the colonies getting their independence and they can’t stop us either. A referendum would have been democratic but a plebiscite election will also work.

We’ve jumped through the hoops to get an agreed referendum and been knocked back so it makes sense that this is the avenue left to us. Some people vote SNP who are against independence but it’s not a high number and there are people who vote for other parties like Labour who support independence and so would probably vote SNP in a plebiscite election.

In fact the Brits would have had a better chance of winning a referendum than a plebiscite so they have shot themselves in the foot.

Imperial delusions don’t make Britain great

Britain should stop giving out medals and knighthoods in honour of a long dead racist and rapacious Empire. There are other things which indicate Britain is not so great.

1) Banning republicans from parliament is actually shameful in a supposed democracy.

2) A brutish British Tory government which works for millionaires and appears to detest the poor doesn’t and shouldn’t fill anyone with pride. Shame is the appropriate emotion.

3) Britain’s foreign policy stinks. Cutting foreign aid to the bone was bad enough but Brexit is a completely suicidal approach to trade while preventing freedom of movement has caused huge problems and solved none. The USA clearly sees Britain as a pariah in world affairs. They have told Britgov to go whistle for a trade deal and that will continue as long as Britain threatens the NI protocol and the Good Friday Agreement.

I’m a Scot and feel proud of what my country can potentially become and has started in the Scottish Parliament with moves toward more fairness in society. Free prescriptions, plans for free dental care and a better funded and better performing NHS shows the SNP Government have the health of our people as a priority. Similarly having no tuition fees means our young people are not prevented from accessing education. In England you get what you pay for, if you can afford it. The taxation system is fairer in Scotland with higher earners paying more tax and the low paid paying less.

England and Scotland could be friends and allies as independent countries on a basis of equality. England is just too big to be in an equal union with Scotland and for the moment what they say goes and we have to lump it.

The Tory Government got into power on a minority of the vote. If Labour had any sense the next time they get in power (if ever) they should introduce Proportional Representation. That would isolate the Tories for ever and open up potential alliances with the Liberal Democrats and Greens. Unfortunately Labour have given no indication that they dislike the two party system even though it usually works against them.

Maybe England can also be proud of itself in the future but it is unlikely while they fly the ‘Butchers Apron’ union flag and hang on to empire dreams. Perhaps their ambitions will adjust if Scotland and Wales (and Cornwall) leave the union. That would be no bad thing.

Maybe Queen Elizabeth didn’t oppose Scottish independence, who knows?

Many unionist commentators (mostly from England) are ecstatic at the high numbers of mourners who lined the streets before the late Queen Elizabeth was (temporarily) laid in state at St. Giles Cathedral in Edinburgh. Her coffin was covered in the Scottish Royal flag, the Lion Rampant and the streets were lined with well wishers along the route from her Balmoral Estate to Scotland’s capital, Edinburgh.

Brits are hoping this is an indication of a unionist revival in Scotland as the Queen is one of the biggest symbols of the British state, support for the Queen equals support for Britain, right?

Not necessarily. The main supporters of independence are the SNP. The SNP support the monarchy and both the former First Minister Alex Salmond and the current FM Nicola Sturgeon have been careful to design her as Queen of Scots when she visited Scotland which she did quite regularly. This epithet could be seen as fitting since the Queen shares the blood of the great Scots hero King Robert the Bruce (through her mother Elizabeth Bowes Lyon) and has always loved her Royal Estate of Balmoral where she sadly passed away.

British unionists will find I’m sure that Scotland can seperate their genuine feelings for a long serving (70 years) 96 year old monarch from the actions of her British Government.

Many people claimed (without proof) that the Queen was personally upset by the idea of independence for Scotland but I think she would have been quite happy about it if we had voted Yes in 2014. She seemingly welcomed the establishment of the Scottish parliament so why not? Her words ‘think carefully’ could well have meant ‘don’t miss this opportunity’ while Cameron’s ‘purred down the phone’ comments were quite obvious Tory spin ie not to be believed.

Nicolas Witchell the BBC’s Royal reporter (who is detested by the new King Charles, who was once caught on tape saying ‘oh god, there’s that awful man again!’) claimed otherwise but who really believes that the Royal Family confide in him?

She is head of state for a large number of countries and many in Scotland would have been happy to keep her as ours. Whether King Charles and his son will be welcomed similarly is another matter. If they remain neutral on independence (like the Queen) then perhaps but if they start briefing against independence then they won’t.

What being British really means

What does Britain really mean? Let’s take the time to examine it in detail.

IF Rally - 30/09/2006

“I’m an English nationalist and never you forget it”

Mrs Thatcher told James Naughtie in 1986

The British unionist campaign in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum was called Better Together but the question needs to be asked Better Together for who? There are four countries in the British Union Scotland, England, Wales and Cornwall (and the disputed area between UK and Eire known as ‘Northern Ireland’) but there is only one of them which seems to dominate every aspect.

The Flag

If one considers the Union Flag the symbolism is obvious. The St. George’s Cross dominates in the centre, its cross is the thickest and both the flags for Ireland and Scotland are hidden behind it.

Union Jack

The Union flag (aka Union Jack if flown at sea.)

Britain

The name of Britain chosen for the new state which was created in 1707 by the Union of Scotland and England (Wales was not mentioned) clearly references back to Britannia which was the Roman name for the area they occupied which is largely made up of England. This area (see map below) did not include Scotland which was then known by the Romans as Caledonia.

roman_britain

“Caledonia: historical area… beyond Roman control, roughly corresponding to modern Scotland…. the frontier between Roman territory and Caledonia was fixed south of the Cheviot Hills by the emperor Hadrian” – Encyclopedia Britannica

The ancient Britons after various invasions would end up pushed into Wales and Cornwall. They were probably ancient Gaelic Celts though a different branch to those in Scotland and Ireland.

The British identity then has no real currency in respect of Scotland and has dubious relevance to England either since the Anglo-Saxons had very little connection with the ‘ancient Britons’ apart from being the force that pushed the Celts out of Britannia and created the nations of Wales and Cornwall. Nonetheless in terms of the area described by the term Britannia this could be seen as an ancient name for the area known as England (if you discount the existence of Wales and Cornwall).

For much of English history ignoring Wales and Cornwall is precisely what has happened and while today Westminster has grudgingly provided a parliament for Wales (with less powers than Scotland) the ancient country/Duchy of Cornwall has no political power whatsoever. Nowadays Prince William uses the ‘Duchy of Cornwall’ as a useful source of income, in fact he requires no income from the Civil list because all his spending is provided for by the vast estates which he has taken ownership of in Cornwall.

At one point however Cornwall was a distinct entity (it is often noted that at the time of the 1707 British union Scotland gained the same amount of MP’s at Westminster as Cornwall and ancient documents indicate three distinct people in England [sic], being the English Welsh and Cornish).

In the same way as ‘Greater Caledonia’ would be a term which could not seriously include England it is also the case that Great Britain does not linguistically or historically represent the identity of Scotland and never has done.

The Queen

QE2

Queen Elizabeth II of England.

At the Coronation the Queen was officially named as Elizabeth II and in England she was dressed as above. In Scotland she was dressed very differently when she received the Scottish Crown. In official documents from that time it was emphasised “there should be absolutely no question of a second coronation in Scotland.”

Since there was no Queen Elizabeth I of the UK and given that precedent had previously been that the King or Queen of the two Kingdoms changed their official title to reflect this fact (Scotland’s James VI became officially James I of the ‘United Kingdom’). The Queen’s title seemed to reflect that she was the Queen of England only. Queen Elizabeth I is an important figure in English history (for various reasons) and it is clear that this action was an obvious slap in the face to the Scots. It was recognised as such at the time and there was a brief letter bomb campaign to destroy all letter boxes with the EIIR symbol. To this day there are no letter boxes in Scotland with those letters on them as they were all removed after this protest.

The National Anthem

Post 1745 and the failed Jacobite rebellion the following verse was added to the ‘national’ anthem God Save the King which gives us a good idea of what the feelings were at the time:

Lord, grant that Marshal Wade,

May by thy mighty aid,

Victory bring.

May he sedition hush,

and like a torrent rush,

Rebellious Scots to crush,

God save the King.

The post 1745 version of the ‘national’ anthem ‘God Save the King’

It is worth noting that this song is sung at English Rugby matches but Scotland and Wales both have their own distinct national anthems.

Rule Britannia

The traditional song ‘Rule Britannia’ which refers to Britain ruling the waves (and never being slaves) doesn’t really reflect on any other country apart from England and it’s Navy a fact made quite evident by the British naval flag (below).

'British' navy flag.

‘British’ navy flag.

Westminster Parliament (based in London, England)

Since England has 82% of Britain’s MP’s Westminster could legitimately be claimed to be as good as and in fact a lot better than any devolved English parliament.

Britain means retention of the Scottish Oil Fields under English political control and the use of that money in capital projects like the London Olympics, or duelling the A1 or indeed the Channel Tunnel. It also keeps the pound as a credible currency and magnifies British importance in Europe. The Scottish fishing grounds have been used as a ‘bargaining chip’ in the past.

The Bank of England is effectively Britain’s central bank. The inclusion of Scotland and Wales’s GDP keeps Britain in the G8. Historical prominence means that Britain has a seat in the UN and also has the added boost of being a member of the security council.

If we consider England’s state interests then England gets every advantage from the Union and very few disadvantages. A small amount of Scottish or Welsh MP’s might vote in a different way to English MP’s but in reality any party who gets into power in Westminster has to have huge support in England by definition.

The Trident Nuclear Deterrent means Britain/England can boss other countries around and interfere in their domestic policy while sonorously declaring that no-one else should have nuclear weapons. They are unpopular in Scotland of course, but it’s handy to keep them somewhere.

Retaining Britain means that England also retain control of little outposts like the Falklands or tax havens like the Channel Islands which means that the rich can still work in Britain while avoiding paying tax there.

Unfortunately all these additional benefits for England come at a cost. Wales and Scotland (and Cornwall) have to pretend we don’t exist internationally. (3)

The truth is ‘independence’ for England would mean an actual reduction in power not an increase and England would have to accept that their imperial dream was finally over.

This is something that no English MP will ever countenance voluntarily (though they will be forced under international law to do so after any democratic vote for independence) which is why every London-based party is 100% against Scottish independence. It is not in their national interest.

The United Nations

This was very clearly illustrated in a BBC interview with the former British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw from 2006:

Jack Straw Q & A online for BBC Question Time

Jack Straw Quote

The original link to the full interview is here (the comments re Scotland are at the end):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/question_time/5388078.stm

Note that Straw claims the British seat at the United Nations security council actually belongs to England!

Scotland Extinguished

As if that’s not bad enough it appears that Straw is not alone and in fact his viewpoint is representative of the British Government’s official view. Their recent legal advice says:

“It is not necessary to decide between these two views of the union of 1707. Whether or not England was also extinguished by the union, Scotland certainly was extinguished as a matter of international law, by merger into either an enlarged and renamed England or into an entirely new state.”

The real legal position is possibly somewhat different. This quote is from the judgement in MacCormick v Lord Advocate 1953: “The principle of the unlimited sovereignty of Parliament is a distinctively English principle which has no counterpart in Scottish constitutional law… Considering that the Union legislation extinguished the Parliaments of Scotland and England and replaced them by a new Parliament, I have difficulty in seeing why it should have been supposed that the new Parliament of Great Britain must inherit all the peculiar characteristics of the English Parliament but none of the Scottish Parliament, as if all that happened in 1707 was that Scottish representatives were admitted to the Parliament of England. That is not what was done.”

What we can see is that the British Government does think like Straw (or is arguing the point because it is desperate to keep successor status, in the same paper it is argued that England is in the same position as Russia was within the Soviet Union!) and the suggestion during the 2014 referendum that we would have no right to use the pound Sterling without the agreement of the rUK/English Government and the Bank of England by George Osbourne fits with this point of view.

They are effectively saying that Scotland was politically extinguished by the union, that Scotland leaving the UK would have no effect on its status whatsoever and that every treaty signed by Britain had no connection with one of the main countries that was a part of it.

Logically this means that Scotland has got nothing from being in the union apart from a tenth share in Britain’s enormous national debt and if we had zero status within the union there is no reason why we should accept that either a fact pointed out recently by international legal expert Dr Matt Qvortrup.

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/scotlandfeatures/4924051/Expert-Scotland-can-legally-leave-the-UK-and-be-debt-free.html

Was the British union a complete fraud?

Many Scots will (despite the above) want to believe that the union has not really been a sham and at points it may not have been. We did work together to defeat Hitler during World War II and there is no doubt that some Scots benefited financially from the British Empire. (4)

It’s important to remember however that most ordinary Scots were dirt poor at the beginning of Empire and just as poor at the end. After the failed 1745 rebellion (which was mostly made up of Scots) the British state cracked down hard on the rebels. Scotland was effectively ethnically cleansed by the Highland clearances and for many years Gaelic, Tartan and Bagpipes were all banned. Invalided English soldiers were even used to colonise areas of Scotland shortly after 1745.

The Scottish enlightenment period is claimed as a benefit of the union but in reality it would have been based upon the educational system in Scotland which was far superior at the time to the equivalent in England.

It is also never mentioned that the enlightenment period was not politically enlightened, quite the reverse! Scotland was effectively a police state with 20,000 paid informers and radicals were sent to Botany Bay (Thomas Muir) or hanged (the 1820 martyrs).

During the empire period the people of Scotland were treated no better than the colonised people’s of other lands and given that the Gaelic culture in Scotland (which in different forms was common to the whole island which we now know as Britain but which may at one point have been known as Albijo or ‘Alba’) was effectively wiped out prior to expansion we can say with some certainty that the ‘culture’ that we were forcing on the world was not our own. (5 + 6)

Given the above I think it is fair to say that although in fact the Scots and English were incorporated into a new state in 1707 (no doubt influenced by an English army on the border and harsh economic sanctions at the time imposed by the English parliament) the reality is that Westminster has acted as an effectively ‘Greater England’ Government since then and still does today.

Westminster

Who controls Westminster? Isn’t it obvious?

In 1997 Tony Blair bluntly reminded us where the power really lay over devolution:

“Sovereignty rests with me as an English MP and that’s the way it will stay.”

As reported in the Scotsman.

Better Together – Patriotic Scots?

This is perhaps the reason why Better Together in 2014 ditched the Union flag for their No campaign because they realised that Scotland’s identity is much stronger than the British alternative in Scotland. They have even styled their campaign ‘the patriotic campaign’ an absurdity that at some point should have been exposed.

I think this letter is pertinent which I sent to the Scotsman in September 2011.

Sir,

Your interview with former Secretary of State for Scotland Jim Murphy which was printed today (http://tinyurl.com/3vey85t) was illuminating on a number of points.

Firstly his comment: “We need to be where most Scots are – Scottish first, British second.” is unlikely to be popular amongst his fellow unionists but it has the whiff of realism about it.

Unfortunately for Labour they do not have a history of putting Scotland first and in any contest of patriotism with the SNP they are likely to fall far short.

Mr Murphy regrets his own lack of input to the last Scottish elections and according to the article writer appears to suggest that MSPs will never be left alone again to run their own campaign. This suggestion rather undermines the supposed plan for operational independence from London which has been reported recently in the Scotsman.

As far as his own ambitions go it is clear that the future of Labour in Scotland is not Mr Murphy’s main priority. He prefers to pretend to be a Defence Minister in London.

Being Scotland’s party leader might be of some interest in the future, but only after twenty years!

So long as Labour sees Westminster as the most important parliament and their top politicians are openly declaring that their own personal priorities lie outside Scotland it is no wonder that the Scottish people will prefer a SNP that places Scotland first.

Yours faithfully

Joe Middleton

Should we try to co-opt Britishness?

There are some voices suggesting that we should argue that Britishness will somehow be retained after independence (at least as a geographic identity) and some others are claiming that England ‘is not a foreign country’.

This is a logical absurdity and even though those involved may feel this way the reality is that we are planning on breaking up the British union and we won’t get there by arguing for the retention of the very state which is suffocating our own identity.

The views of those who genuinely feel British but are also voting Yes are worth highlighting, as they may appeal to a number of their fellow Scots but claiming that Britain won’t end when Scotland leaves the union is insulting to the intelligence of Scotland’s voters and would be ripped apart by any reasonably skilled debater.

Britain was a construct which amplified English power and the end of this false state is absolutely required to allow Scotland (and Wales and possibly one day Cornwall) to make our own voice heard in the world.

England is already a separate country and by that measure is foreign. What independence would have done is formalise the fact that we are separate countries and restore Scotland’s rightful place amongst the international community which was interrupted by the events in 1707.

(1) Perhaps in retrospect he really became King of England. James certainly saw his new kingdom as more important indeed he is quoted as hoping that Scotland would become ‘like a distant shire’, not a patriotic individual as far as Scotland was concerned. He was also incidentally responsible for Scottish Presbyterians colonising Northern Ireland to more effectively divide ‘n’ rule Ireland.

(2) The ‘Jacobite Rebellion’ is usually described as a British civil war however it was in reality also a war aimed at restoring Scottish independence. Bonnie Prince Charlie (Charles Edward Stuart, Charles III) actually declared that the British Union was ‘dissolved’. When Charles III reached Derby the British King George III was in a dreadful panic but according to historical sources he assured his followers that he would ‘always remain King of England.’

(3) The British Government used the Westminster parliament to lay legal claim to both the Scottish town of Berwick and Wales as parts of ENGLAND in 1746 after defeating those ‘rebellious Scots’ in 1745.

(4) Churchill referred to Britain as ‘England’ throughout World War II which no doubt reflected the political reality of the time but possibly ignoring the Scots during wartime had an energising political effect on Scotland. The SNP won their first by-election in 1945. There was a two million petition for devolution in 1950 (ignored!) and the SNP has risen (with some ups and downs) since the Hamilton by-election of 1967.

(5) At the time of union many Scots spoke a similar (but different) language to England. Scots. This language has been treated by contempt over the years but has as much historic validity as English and in fact it is mixed with some Gaelic words.

(6) Scotland’s standard of living only improved after 1945 (after rationing) which gives you an idea of how awful the living conditions for people in Scotland before then.

(7) Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2012

When the Question is asked which do you think ought to have most influence over the way Scotland is run?

65% say Scottish Government

24% say Westminster

As a result of independence would Scotland have a stronger voice in the world, a weaker voice, or would it make no difference?

44% say stronger

32% say no difference

22% think it will be weaker

From: http://www.scotcen.org.uk/media/1021487/ssa12tables.pdf

Why Scotland will vote Yes to independence

by Joe Middleton

As I write this in 80 days on 18 September 2014 there will be a vote in Scotland on whether our country will become an independent nation once again. Scotland’s independence ended over 300 years ago in 1707 when the country was merged with England (who at that point had already conquered Wales) to create the new state of Britain.

The choice of Britain as the name of the new state was interesting as historically Britannia was the name of the area conquered by Rome which specifically excluded Scotland (then known as Caledonia). There was even an attempt to rebrand Scotland as ‘North Britain’ post-union (though ultimately this attempt failed and today anyone who described Scotland as North Britain would be ridiculed).

According to official UK Government legal advice Scotland’s existence was ‘extinguished’ by the British Union: “It is not necessary to decide between these two views of the union of 1707. Whether or not England was also extinguished by the union, Scotland certainly was extinguished as a matter of international law, by merger into either an enlarged and renamed England or into an entirely new state.”

In 1997 Tony Blair bluntly reminded us where the power really lay over devolution: “Sovereignty rests with me as an English MP and that’s the way it will stay.” As reported in the Scotsman.

Jack Straw in a BBC interview in 2006 revealed the true facts about the nature of Britain: “Historically, England called the shots to achieve a union because the union was seen as a way, among others things, of amplifying England’s power worldwide.

And the reverse would certainly be true. A broken-up United Kingdom would not be in the interests of Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, but especially not England.

Our voting power in the European Union would diminish. We’d slip down in the world league GDP tables. Our case for staying in the G8 would diminish and there could easily be an assault on our permanent seat in the UN Security Council.”

Despite the fact that Britain effectively operates as a ‘greater England’ this is not necessarily obvious to everyone and there are a great many people who tend to believe the fiction that Scotland is an equal partner in the British project.

In fact according to most opinion polls so far Scots seem likely to vote to remain within the British union however the trend of these polls also shows Yes support rising and the gap between Yes and No narrowing. Independence campaigners are confident that they can ultimately win this historic vote though they realise it will be difficult to counter three centuries of pro-British propaganda.

They should take heart from the thought that history is on their side. In the last 100 years only one region or country has voted against independence when they had the chance. Some have taken two votes but most have chosen to say yes to normal national powers. The only exception has been Quebec however even Quebec was extremely close to winning independence in the last vote they held in 1995 and this was a sub division of the country of Canada which itself voted to escape British rule many years ago.

The USA President Barack Obama has indicated that he would prefer the British state to remain united however most Americans relish their own independence day which was only achieved after a bloody war with Britain.

So what are the arguments for and against independence? No campaigners claim that the British state has functioned perfectly well for 300 years and that only by staying in the Union can Scots guarantee their future prosperity. They argue that if Scotland votes for independence we might have to give up the British pound Sterling as our currency and that the European Union and NATO will expel Scots from membership. They also claim that the NHS will come under threat and that pensions will be unaffordable with independence. They further claim that the North Sea Oil revenues are running out and that Scotland benefits financially from the union. They also say that more powers will be devolved to Scotland’s parliament if we vote against independence and that if we leave the United Kingdom (UK) we will diminish our role in world affairs.

The Yes campaign argue that Scotland is effectively invisible in world politics at the moment and that only independence will provide the powers necessary to transform Scotland into a fairer and more productive society. Only with our own seat at the United Nations will we have any influence at all on world affairs.

Currently Scotland sends 59 MP’s to the London based Westminster UK parliament. England has 533 MP’s or 82% of the whole parliament. This means that Scotland’s influence on the existing UK state is marginal at best yet Westminster controls our foreign policy, defence policy and benefits policies amongst others.

In all these areas there is disagreement between what Scotland wants and what Scotland gets and the current Conservative led British Government has only one Conservative MP elected in Scotland.

This adds up to an extremely large democratic deficit and Yes campaigners argue that only when all these powers are returned to Scotland through independence can we actually influence policy in these crucial areas.

No campaigners claim the European Union (EU) would not accept an independent Scotland however the real threat to Scotland’s status in the EU actually comes from the UK. In the recent European elections the anti-EU UK Independence party (UKIP) won throughout Britain while the Scottish National Party (SNP) won the popular vote in Scotland. The UK Government plans to hold an in-out referendum on Europe and if anti-European feeling remains high it is likely that the UK will vote to leave Europe and Scotland will be tugged out along with it unless we seize the chance to vote for independence before then.

As Scotland has huge oil and fish reserves it seems much more likely that Europe will welcome Scotland than turn its back on us. We have been EU citizens since 1973 and we are fully compliant with all EU rules and directives. Yes there will need to be negotiations with the EU such as deciding how many Euro MP’s an independent Scotland will have but the idea that the EU would actually reject us seems rather absurd.

The UK Government claims oil revenues are running out but let’s face it they would say that wouldn’t they. They don’t have a good record in this regard as official documents (the infamous McCrone report) show that they bare faced lied about the extent of future oil production in the 1970’s and they simply cannot be trusted to tell the truth in this regard.

George Osborne the UK Chancellor has declared that we will not be able to share the pound with the rest of the UK post independence however the pound sterling is an internationally traded currency like the dollar and in fact there is no way that the rUK (rest of the UK ie England, Wales and Northern Ireland) could stop us using the pound if we chose to do so.

It’s possible that the current British central bank will not continue to have that function as far as Scotland is concerned post independence however this would not be in the interest of the rUK because it would mean that oil revenues (which all experts accept would almost wholly belong to Scotland) would be placed outside the Sterling area and therefore weaken the currency.

No campaign (Better Together) chief Alistair Darling MP originally said that a currency union was not only desirable but logical. On Newsnight Scotland on 10 January 2013 Alistair Darling said: “Of course – of course it would be desirable to have a currency union . . . If you have independence or separation, of course the currency union is logical”.

On pensions it has been proven that according to official Government statistics (GERS) Scotland has a better financial position than the rest of the UK. In addition Scotland already controls the NHS under devolution and the Scottish Government has protected it from the partial privatisation measures which have been introduced in England.

In England vast tuition fees of £9000 per year have been introduced for students but in Scotland the Scottish Government has protected students from these fees using the existing devolved powers.

While the unionist parties are now apparently promising greater powers for Scotland in the event of a No vote it should be remembered that these same parties decided in their 2009 Calman commission that only the most minor powers should be given to Scotland. The only driver for more powers is the threat of Scottish independence. Without that threat (ie with a No vote) it is to be expected that further devolution will be kicked into the long grass. In 1979 after an unsuccessful vote on devolution (due to a rigged ballot) devolution was effectively delayed for twenty years! This was despite a clear Conservative promise to provide a better form of devolution if Labour’s plans were rejected.

Scottish independence (if it happens) will have wide ranging repercussions not least that the first independent Government is likely to ban the use of nuclear weapons from Scottish soil and order the decommission of the UK’s nuclear fleet (which is wholly kept in Scotland at the moment) which may go some way to explain why Barack Obama has interfered in the debate to back the UK position.

Scotland also intends to be a leading pioneer in new renewable energy technology and many campaigners (such as the Radical Independence group) also hope that we will eventually move to a more Scandinavian style society with greater respect and support for the poorest in our community.

Yes campaigners are confident that Better Together’s various negative claims can be disproved with a little research and they are also confident of victory despite the current negative polls.

The reason for that is that the SNP, Green Party and Scottish Socialist Party along with a vast amount of ordinary members of the public have joined together under the banner of Yes Scotland.

The SNP itself is a formidable electoral machine but the larger Yes campaign is a lot bigger than just the SNP. Just how big can be indicated by the fact that Yes Scotland has already collected 800,000 signatures for their Yes declaration. They have also organised some major marches and demonstrations through the streets of Edinburgh the last one of which had 30,000 people on top of Calton Hill. Yes Scotland has branches throughout the length and breadth of Scotland and has organised public meetings in almost every small town across Scotland.

Online activity has been independently gauged at around 80% in favour of a Yes vote and hundreds of groups have become organised through Facebook, Linked In etc. The campaign has also benefited by the fact that a Euro lottery winning couple (who won between them £161 million pounds) are backing the campaign and have pledged a total of £5.5 million towards the campaign. This means that the Yes campaign cannot be financially out-spent by Better Together which has been mostly funded so far by Conservative leaning business people.

Where Better Together are strong is in the area of the media with most newspapers (with the honourable exception of the Sunday Herald) supporting a No vote. It is possible that another paper might change its mind before the actual vote but in general all newspapers (most of whom are owned outwith Scotland) are solidly
British unionist. Also they obviously have official support from the British Government from the UK Prime Minister David Cameron downwards and the British Cabinet and various UK committees have published various papers criticizing the SNP Government and their proposals for independence.

While Alastair Darling is the official leader of the Better Together campaign the actual leading figure in unionist politics is obviously the British Prime Minister David Cameron who signed the Edinburgh agreement alongside Alex Salmond the First Minister of Scotland to agree the legal terms of the referendum. Salmond has challenged Cameron to a public debate which the UK Prime Minister has declined presumably because he is aware of his Government’s deep unpopularity in Scotland.

The BBC has tended to follow a British Unionist agenda (there are about 30 stories on their website about various spurious ‘Warnings’ over independence) however in these last 100 days they are forced by their public charter to at least seem to be even handed. We will have to wait and see if this happens or not.

Other powerful voices for Yes are Business for Scotland a large group of Yes supporting small and medium sized businesses and National Collective formerly known as Artists for Independence who are currently producing a cultural Yestival and have produced numerous articles and humorous cartoons amongst other things so far. There are numerous other groupings as well within the larger Yes campaign.

All in all it would appear that Yes campaigners are better organised on the ground than Better Together and photographic evidence suggests support and interest for Yes stalls and Yes public meetings has been much higher than the equivalent from the No campaign.

Yes campaigners are hoping that this groundswell of grassroots campaigning combined with adverts, leaflets and their own newspapers will get through to the larger public and that Scotland will join the rest of the world as a normal independent country on 24 March 2016.